The Paris Agreement Minus the U.S. Equals Canadian Opportunity

What does it mean for the international energy landscape now that the U.S. is withdrawing from the Paris Agreement?

United States Secretary of State John Kerry holds granddaughter Isabelle Dobbs Higginson while he signs the Paris Agreement on Climate Change at the headquarters of the United Nations in New York City on April 22, 2016. A historic meeting takes place today as 155 countries have committed to sign the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Photo by John Angelillo/UPI

Along with the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and other commitments of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, executive orders promoting oil and gas production and ending requirements for electric vehicles and other electric appliances have been issued.

For the U.S., net-zero commitments are out. This will undoubtedly apply pressure to the rest of the world to do the same to remain competitive. How will the other approximate 200 countries who are signatory to the Paris Agreement respond?  Is it politically or economically viable for other countries to be held to an ambitious decarbonization standard while one of the worst green house gas emitters in the world, the U.S., has rebuked any effort at all?

Hopefully national and international responses will be strategic, measured, and based on facts. This New Scientist article points out that countries representing more than 90 per cent of global emissions are still committed to the Paris Agreement. Also, wind and solar energy, electric vehicles, batteries and other clean technologies also now play a much larger role in the global economy.

Furthermore, as already demonstrated in other areas, where the U.S. backs out of its international commitments, China will likely step in to fill the void. China dominates many clean energy industries and as stated in the New Scientist article : “The US won’t only be ceding influence over how those markets are shaped, but will be ceding those markets period.”  The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement may slow the clean energy transition but will not stop it. 

The U.S. level of conviction behind a permanent withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is uncertain. They pulled out of the agreement once before, then rejoined immediately upon a change of leadership. To a degree, the current climate policy of the U.S. must be viewed under the lens of a political cycle. Furthermore, the current U.S. political transition is tumultuous, the U.S. social climate equally so. To destabilize decades of international progress in the clean energy industry based on such precarious circumstances would be unforgivably shortsighted.

The way I see it, we can either hold ourselves back, as the U.S. has chosen, or we can continue our work to create a more sustainable and healthy future. I for one hope to see more conversations about how to accelerate the clean energy transition. While the U.S. shirks its global leadership role, Canada should fill the void as a voice of reason.